Big Wahl’s Week 3 Pick Em, Spread Em, Point at Em Preview:

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This week we are analyzing the spreads, money lines, and Over/Under lines of total points between various College Football teams.

Boston College at Wake Forest

SPREAD to Take: BC (-5.5) TAKE IT. Why?

  • Wake Forest’s Defense is a pathetic 117th in FBS against the pass THIS season. Expect BC to put up a lot of points and quickly.
  • Boston College is 6-0-1 against the spread in the ACC in their last seven games.
  • Running Back AJ Dillon racked up 149 rushing yards in ONE quarter against Holy Cross. I get it it’s Holy Cross, but that says something even though the Demon Deacons are better competition.

Oklahoma at Iowa State

SPREAD to Take: Iowa State (+17.5) TAKE IT. Why?

  • Iowa State has covered the spread 70% of the time in the last 10 games.
  • Oklahoma has lost their star Running Back, Rodney Anderson for the season. A huge loss for the Sooners, but definitely is a plus for Iowa State on Saturday.
  • Last 12 Games, Iowa State is almost 67% Against the Spread at Jack Trice Stadium.

Rutgers at Kansas

MONEY LINE to Take: Rutgers (+130) Book It.

  • Kansas lost to Nicholls State an FBS school in Week 1 at HOME. Rutgers destroyed Texas State (new to FCS, in the Sun Belt Conference) 35-3 Week 1. Two teams in the armpit of their conference, however the Big 12
  • Kansas has scored less than 10 points 40% of the time in their last 10 games. Not a team tehat likes to score.
  • If we are talking about Against the Spread, in the last 9, Rutgers has covered it 66% of the time. That +3 should just grow in your wallet.

USF at Illinois

SPREAD AND MONEY LINE to Take: USF on the Money Line (-370) and on the spread (-10). Consider it beer money in your pocket, waon’t make you tons but it can buy you and a friend a couple beers at the bar.

  • 89.5%, better than the grades I got in school. That’s how clutch USF has been on the Money Line in the last 19 games, winning 17 of 19.
  • The Spread is only -10, they destroyed the Illini just last year by 24. Look for that similar number this year.
  • Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) is having a monster year, and has the Bulls passing offense 9th in passing yards in the country.

Miami (OH) at Minnesota

OVER/UNDER to Take: I hate taking the under, but am with the Gophers and the Red Hawks. I see a blanking by Minnesota, I expect them to score and Miami to put up very little.

  • The Gopher defense is 8th in the country in the LEAST amount of rushing yards allowed on Defense. Granted they’ve played New Mexico State and Fresno State, but hell when do you see Minnesota Football top 8 in any positive stat?
  • Miami has went under in 50% of their last 10 games. Minnesota has went under in 40%, averaging 45% in the last 20 games both of these times have gone under the number which is set at 46.5 points.
  • The Gophers have already three running backs in two games, with over 100 yards rushing. Everyone knows, in the Big Ten it’s great to go three deep at Running Back as their rivals to the South, (cough cough, Wisconsin) have learned so well

North Texas at Arkansas

SPREAD and MONEY LINE to Take: Mean Green at +7 is a nice setting being seeing Arkansas last week. +230 is a nice take as well and could buy that fancy meal your girlfriend wants.

  • Mason Fine can sling it. 4000 yard passer last season and won Offensive Player of the Year in Conference. This kid is an example that you don’t have to be 6’2 to be an elite passer. Two straight games over 400 yards passing is no joke.
  • Arkansas is 22% against the spread in their last 7 games at Home. Of course, you can argue new Chad Smith will take this team to new heights, but I think it’s going take him a while to fix what Bielema screwed up.
  • Points, Points, Points! Averaging 52 PPG in their last two contests. I think Mason Fine will put up BIG yards against Arkansas and lead the Mean Green to victory!

Alabama at Ole Miss

SPREAD to Take: I’ve learned not ride against the Tide on the Spread. Last time? Last year at Vandy (+18, I took Vandy) result? 59-0 at AWAY in Nashville. -21 looks nice at Vault-Hemingway Stadium, I see a similar outcome to the game last year I mentioned.

  • Although the Rebels pulled way in the 2nd half against Southern Illinois last week, you have to be a little scared that they are not going to get destroyed by one of the best defenses in the country, Alabama.
  • Defensively, they allowed 38 points at HALF to the Salukis from FCS power conference, the Missouri Valley. God knows what Tua Tagovailoa will do that to that Rebels Defense.
  • Ole Miss is 107 of the 130 teams in FBS in Points Allowed. Not good despite they’ve played FCS and the Big 12.

Ohio State at TCU (at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Neutral Site)

OVER?/UNDER to Take: As of today, the number is 58.5 which with these two high flying offenses, should be an easy OVER to take.

  • Ohio State has gone OVER in their last 13 games over 69% of the time. Dwayne Haskins (in Wahl’s QB College Football Preview) has had a big year for the Bucks, firing on all cylinders and showing that he will be a better player than JT Barrett ever was.
  • These teams points wise put together, have been averaging 113 points on their opponents this year. If they can’t tally up 58.5 together, I would be extremely shocked!
  • Ohio State’s margin of victory between their first two PAC 12 and Big Ten opponent is 47.5. I witnessed TCU struggle early against SMU and then pull away late. Will be  an interesting game, but the Buckeyes will be dominant again in this one at the Jerry Dome.

USC at Texas

MONEY LINE to Take: USC at +140 at Texas is a small blessing, especially the way Texas has been playing this year. Got beat AGAIN by Maryland this year and grinded their teeth to get by the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa.

  • USC had the upper hand at Memorial Coliseum last season, but I think the Trojans steal another one from the Longhorns. JT Daniel will have a much better game than last week against Stanford.
  • USC is only allowing 140 passing yards a game this season per game on Defense, which is 18th in the country.
  • I understand the Dual Threat QB is taking over the game, but I don’t trust Sam Ehlinger. Stats last year, 6 Touchdowns to 4 Interceptions, rushing yards? only 261 yards AND 3.1 yards per carry. Expect him to play startled again, just like last years game in Los Angeles.

Houston at Texas Tech

SPREAD to Take: Houston at (-1) is a steal. This team has been playing outstanding Football this year as Major Applewhite has become a successful coach succeeding Tom Herman.

  • Houston averaged 532 yards of Total Offense in 2017, expect similar in this game.
  • Texas Tech is 30% against the spread in the last 10 games overall. At home in the last 5 games 20% of the time covers the spread, not a spread friendly team whatsoever.
  • 47 points allowed per game this season. If this isn’t a sign that Houston is going to run all over them by at least two TD’s I don’t what is. Plus add that Ed Oliver is a monster on Defensive, and it going to have a party in Lubbock at 4:15 on Saturday

 

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