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Big Wahl’s Big 6 Pick of the Week: Week 11

Nate Wahl

Akron at Eastern Michigan, Saturday 11/10 12 Noon, ESPN3

My Spread is on: Akron +13

  • Akron will stay in this game because yards per play matter in the MAC. Their defense is inside the Top 30 in FBS in yards per play overall. You get stops, you cover spreads. You do that consistently, the Zips win football games which could be at Eastern Michigan.
  • History shows Akron will stay in this game. Akron has the advantage in almost every category on offense and defense in  their last 3 games with the Eagles from Ypsilanti.  With the advantage in the last 3, I have confidence that the Zips will cover the spread with ease, in which could be a low scoring game anyway.
  • I'm also 1-0 this season when I pick against the Eagles of Eastern Michigan. I took another underdog in Army earlier this season, to go into Ypsilanti and win and guess what they did? Won easily.

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UCLA at Arizona State, Saturday 11/10 2 PM, PAC 12 Network

My Spread is On: Arizona State -12

  • The Sun Devils have "Home Spread Advantage" as they are 80% against the spread at home in Sun Devil Stadium. They make teams feel the pressure in the heat of Tempe.
  • This season they are over 66% against the spread overall. UCLA, is a sad 33% against the spread. Chip Kelly may not last in blue and gold after this season if he can't win some ball games.
  • UCLA's defense is very sub par against the pass, and also against the run. Sub top 85 in FBS in Pass Defense, and outside the top 70 in Rush Defense.

New Mexico at Air Force, Saturday 11/10 3:30 PM, CBS Sports Network

My Spread is On: New Mexico +13.5

  • The Lobos have covered the spread against Air Force 70% of the time in their last 10 meetings. I can back the Lobos on that stat as well as scaring my overrated Wisconsin Badgers earlier this year.
  • On the road this year, the Lobos are 60% against the spread in 5 away games. Not bad for a team that has had constant problems with injuries to Quarterbacks this year.
  • Lobos are perfection; 5-0 against the spread versus Air Force in their last 5, in the world of spreads betting, we call that Perfection at it's finest, bravo to New Mexico and Head Coach Bob Davie.

Kentucky at Tennessee, Saturday 11/10 3:30 PM, SEC Network

The number I'm On: Over 42.5

  • The over has happened 80% of the time in these teams last 5 meeting. I don't see any difference on Saturday in Knoxville.
  • With the number at 42 points, that's a sign Vegas is trying to tell you something, to maybe be careful betting this one. I can see this number getting JUST over the 42, I can see a score of 24-21 or something of that nature with this one. Kentucky plays great defense, but they haven't beaten the Vols in 32 years in Knoxville, take that into consideration, can they break two LONG streaks of winning at Florida and Tennessee in one year?
  • These teams have identical records on the Over/Under. Both go over 50% of the time, so yes I'm saying there's a chance!

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Fresno State at Boise State, Saturday 11/10 10:15 PM, ESPN2 

The Money Line I'm On: Boise State +125

  • Both these teams pass the ball a lot, but Brett Rypien passes the ball better in my opinion. 24 touchdowns to his name in 9 games this year matches his career high at Boise with plenty of games to go.  Will tear up that Bulldogs passing defense, that has played nothing but nobodies this year, and couldn't even beat Minnesota.
  • Sorry Kirk Herbstreit, but the Bulldogs who you stated to be a potential sleeper for the College Football playoff will not win this game. Boise is 5-0 against Fresno State at home aka Brett Rypien owns your sorry rear end, Bulldogs.
  • If the Bulldogs want to win, they need to get to the Quarterback more than 1 time a game which is sub Top 90 in FBS, which Boise's O Line will step up on this week.

California at USC, Saturday 11/10 10:30 PM, ESPN

The Spread I'm On: Calfornia +5.5

  • Defense wins games (and spreads in this case). Cal owns USC in every defense category based on numbers and rankings. If that doesn't scream Golden Bears will cover, I don't know what it says.
  • "Road Spread Advantage" that's what those Cal Bears have with being 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road.
  • USC hates the spread the last 12 games, only covering 25% of the time, which is why you need to run with Bears on this game against the spread, of course.

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Akron at Eastern Michigan, Saturday 11/10 12 Noon, ESPN3My Spread is on: Akron +13Akron will stay in this game because yards per play matter in the MAC. Their defense is inside the Top 30 in FBS in yards per play overall. You get stops, you cover spreads. You do that consistently, […]